MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND THROUGH NRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485...

   VALID 122241Z - 130045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
   PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY OVER NRN MN...BUT A STORM OR TWO STILL
   CANNOT BE RULED OVER NERN ND. STORMS MAY APPROACH THE SERN PORTION
   OF WW 485 BY 00Z...AND WHILE ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
   NEEDED...A FEW COUNTIES CAN BE LOCALLY ADDED TO CURRENT WW IF
   NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD
   THROUGH NRN MN WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM-ADVECTION REGIME. THE STORMS
   ARE PERSISTING ALONG ERN FRINGE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
   ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED IN A PARAMETER SPACE
   CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE
   MOVING SEWD INTO NRN MN...AND THIS IS WHERE DEEPER FORCING IS
   MAXIMIZED. THE CAP IS STRONGER AND FORCING IS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER FROM
   NERN ND INTO EXTREME NWRN MN...SO CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION WITHIN
   THIS PORTION OF THE WW IS LOWER. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
   DOES SHOW BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG A TROUGH IN THIS
   REGION. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW
   HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY OCCURS TOWARD MID
   EVENING.

   ..DIAL.. 08/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   49009783 48889448 48399307 46959288 46199415 46959594
               47549764 49009783