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Mesoscale Discussion 1696 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171906Z - 172130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE/DEVELOP
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SAN
JUAN/SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFT ASIDE...IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT IS BEING AIDED BY AN
EASTWARD-TRANSITIONING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
WHILE INHIBITION STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE PLAINS PER
VISIBLE/OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS...A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS AND
ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE BUOYANCY/NEGLIGIBLE CINH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY ALLOWING STORMS TO DEVELOP/PERSIST ONTO
THE PLAINS. AS MUCH AS 35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A COUPLE
OF SUPERCELLS. SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK...BUT
SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NM/SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.
..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/17/2015
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35530553 35970642 36530636 37620541 38390479 38290349
36390306 35450362 35300450 35530553
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