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Mesoscale Discussion 1700 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 490...
VALID 172241Z - 180015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 490 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CO...WHILE AN
INCREASING DAMAGING-WIND RISK CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR
EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS. TORNADO WATCH 490 CONTINUES UNTIL
05Z...AND DOWNSTREAM PORTIONS OF WESTERN KS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE EARLY THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SOME SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS OF EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CO AS 430 PM MDT/2230Z...ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MERGE/GROW UPSCALE
OVER THE PAST HOUR. SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND A
DAMAGING-WIND RISK SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS A RELATIVELY
BROAD PART OF EASTERN CO AND POTENTIALLY FAR WESTERN KS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE SHORTER TERM WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS JUST EAST OF
COLORADO SPRINGS/NEAR LIMON IN VICINITY OF SURFACE
CYCLONE/BAROCLINIC GRADIENT...WHILE A TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR
WITHIN A MORE COMPLEX CONVECTIVE MODE ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL
CO BETWEEN INTERSTATES 70/76. THIS WOULD BE IN VICINITY OF A
WEST-EAST EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH ARE MAXIMIZED
AS PER MODERATELY STRONG/CONFLUENT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND RECENT
GOODLAND WSR-88D VWP DATA.
..GUYER.. 08/17/2015
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37630350 37690396 38050476 39040502 39700471 40360469
40920483 40930428 40690350 40550261 40050145 39040130
38070154 37740182 37640261 37630350 37630350
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