MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN ND...NRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 221935Z - 222030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   ACROSS PARTS OF ERN ND AND NWRN/N-CNTRL MN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
   THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A COUPLE
   TORNADOES WILL EXIST...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY
   20-21Z.

   DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SEASONABLY STRONG
   MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS QUICKLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND
   IS APPROACHING A N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER FAR ERN ND.
   PERSISTENT STRATUS HAS BEEN NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING
   AND AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS INHIBITED SFC HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES
   ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO
   THE MID-UPPER 60S. WHILE THIS WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY SOMEWHAT...STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE...AND THE DEGREE OF DPVA
   ACCOMPANYING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. 

   A SEPARATE PRE-SFC-FRONTAL BAND OF MOISTENING/ASCENT WAS ALSO NOTED
   ON WATER VAPOR LOOP ACROSS CNTRL MN...AND THIS COULD PROVIDE AN
   ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND AN
   ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STORM MODE...FAVORING
   INITIAL CLUSTER/DISCRETE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

   WITH LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOWING SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   INCREASING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN ND...A TORNADO WATCH
   WILL BE CONSIDERED SOON FOR PARTS OF FAR ERN ND INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL
   MN.

   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 08/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   49049778 49099589 49079448 48219269 46629301 46209387
               45919601 45989765 46669771 49049778