MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 PM CDT TUE SEP 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081959Z - 082130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
   LOWER MI INTO THIS EVENING. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   ISOLATED AND GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND A WATCH IS NOT
   EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...A BAND OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MI WILL CONTINUE
   TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CROSS
   EASTERN LOWER MI. HERE...GREATER HEATING HAS RESULTING IN MUCAPE
   VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPROACHING
   40-50 KT WILL AID IN MAINTAINING STRONGER BOWING SEGMENTS. DESPITE
   THIS...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE POOR SO ANY STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE INTERMITTENT AND SHORT-LIVED. THIS WILL
   LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FURTHER
   SUPPORT SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS. 

   WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...A NARROW
   CORRIDOR MAY EXIST WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION/NON-ZER0 BRIEF
   SPIN-UP MAY OCCUR NEAR THE EASTWARD SURGING CONVECTION AND AN
   EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE NEAR/NORTH OF THE THUMB OF MI.
   HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. A WATCH IS NOT
   EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 09/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42168294 41718354 41878473 43208471 44678410 44748347
               44638287 44108239 43668230 43148237 42538258 42168294