MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NE OK...FAR NW AR...WCNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 102058Z - 102330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS...FAR
   NE OK AND WCNTRL MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
   THE MCD AREA.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED CORRIDOR OF
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NNEWD FROM NE OK INTO FAR ERN KS AND
   WRN MO WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
   70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
   ERN KS AND WRN MO WITH MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG
   RANGE BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
   COVERAGE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE
   INSTABILITY MAX. THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SRN MO. THIS
   FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE MAY INHIBIT VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT GROWTH. HOWEVER...THE SPRINGFIELD MO WSR-88D VWP
   SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT SUGGESTING THAT THE WIND SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THIS
   COMBINED WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 09/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   36779370 37239316 37759275 38549295 38929350 39099392
               39229431 39249445 39169499 38989531 38529562 36789544
               36159462 36779370