MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1793
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR NERN
   NM...FAR SERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102206Z - 110030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR INCREASING POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SVR TSTMS THIS
   AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS BANDS OF AGITATED CU FIELDS ALONG
   SFC TROUGHS ANALYZED NE/SW OVER SERN CO INTO NM AND OVER PARTS OF
   WRN KS. TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...AND
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM AS ASCENT PRECEDING A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
   APPROACHES FROM THE NW...WITH EVOLVING ACTIVITY SPREADING SEWD
   THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST MODEST LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE HAS BRED DEEP PBL CIRCULATIONS OVER THE AREA YIELDING SFC
   TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 30-40F AND DCAPE AROUND 1400-1600
   J/KG...ALLOWING TSTMS TO OFFER SOME SVR-WIND POTENTIAL. ISOLATED SVR
   HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR OWING TO STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
   PLACE. VWPS SAMPLE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
   AREA...ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE.
   HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD RESIDE N OF
   THE DISCUSSION AREA...PREVENTING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SVR RISK FROM
   EVOLVING.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36010386 37540257 37790083 37439998 36729992 35500122
               35050316 36010386