MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 172058Z - 172300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS SRN AND ERN
   MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT PARTS OF WRN
   WI AS WELL. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA NNEWD INTO ERN MN ALONG WHICH SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. AS SFC TEMPS
   HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S F THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS NOW ANALYZED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR BY THE RAP. IN
   RESPONSE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG A COLD
   FRONT AND ARE NOW ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FORMING A BROKEN
   LINE. THE HRRR IS INITIALIZING CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SUGGESTING
   THAT THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE EWD REACHING WRN WI BY EARLY EVENING.
   IN ADDITION TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE MINNEAPOLIS WSR-88D
   VWP SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME STORM
   ORGANIZATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CELLS ASSOCIATED WITH LINE
   SEGMENTS MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   ACROSS SERN MN WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE STEEPER THAN
   IN AREAS TO THE NORTH.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44109493 43109559 42669564 42449543 42379472 42439377
               42979231 43419171 43999136 44719121 46059182 46659263
               46599345 46209389 45649429 44109493