MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1831
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1003 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281503Z - 281800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY
   AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...BUT TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT
   LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS PERSIST JUST OFFSHORE OF VERMILLION/ST MARY
   PARISHES IN LOUISIANA ATTM.  THESE STORMS ARE VERY NEAR A STATIONARY
   FRONTAL ZONE SEPARATING AN AIRMASS CONTAINING SLIGHTLY GREATER
   LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY OFFSHORE AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
   INLAND.  ALTHOUGH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A VERY GOOD
   HANDLE ON THE CURRENT COMPLEX...GUIDANCE/OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
   SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SLOWLY MOVE/DEVELOP INLAND ALONG COASTAL
   AREAS OF LOUISIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  DEEP EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS SUGGESTIVE OF AN
   ISOLATED WATERSPOUT/TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION INLAND DUE TO
   INSOLATION.  A WW IS NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
   THREAT...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..COOK/CORFIDI.. 09/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29559246 29789246 30049232 30199212 30269178 30239124
               30019062 29799027 29389007 29079010 28939030 28919055
               28979116 29149164 29359213 29519242 29559246