MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0540 PM CDT WED OCT 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN NEW MEXICO AND SW/WRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512...

   VALID 072240Z - 080015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE 00-02Z TIME
   FRAME...BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO WEAKEN.  THE NEED FOR A NEW
   SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS NOW ONGOING ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY
   AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AS WELL
   AS WITHIN A SMALL CLUSTER FARTHER TO THE NORTH...NEAR CLOVIS
   NM...PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL SEVERE
   HAIL...AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.  ACTIVITY LIKELY HAS
   BEEN AIDED BY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW TO THE EAST OF LARGER
   SCALE UPPER TROUGHING STILL SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. 
   HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS MOST PROMINENTLY DUE TO
   DESTABILIZATION/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HEATING/OROGRAPHY. 
   WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /LARGELY DUE TO PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS
   WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER TO MID-LEVELS/ SHOULD REMAIN STRONG...MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND IT SEEMS THAT PEAK
   STORM INTENSITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH WANING BOUNDARY
   LAYER INSTABILITY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 00-02Z.

   ..KERR.. 10/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   29370227 28370350 29030439 30050531 30440632 30950748
               32070776 32690631 33780504 34610407 34230282 33100293
               32260297 31390323 30630285 29950245 29370227