MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1847
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN/SOUTHERN PA TO NJ/CT/FAR SOUTHERN NY AND
   NORTHERN MD/DE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091911Z - 092115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO
   MAY BE INCREASING CONCERNS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
   ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PA TO NJ/SOUTHERN NY.
   DEVELOPMENTAL/ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
   FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE AND CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE AT
   20Z.

   DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF AN
   EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF
   INTENSIFICATION ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS OF 230 PM
   EDT/1830Z. WHILE BROKEN CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THE COLD
   FRONT...MODERATE HEATING AND A GRADUALLY MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
   /LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS/ HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH
   INCREASINGLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG
   MLCAPE. THE TREND OF GRADUAL UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO
   CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT YIELDING AS MUCH AS
   35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR
   SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AND POSSIBLY A SPLITTING SUPERCELL
   OR TWO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 10/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39797797 39917782 41087599 41787403 41907306 41477246
               40667351 40147389 39157497 39797797