MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1851
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IL...FAR SRN IND...WRN KY...WRN TN...FAR SE
   MO...FAR NE AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 122049Z - 122315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH
   VALLEY. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS GRADUALLY
   INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE
   TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM
   SCNTRL IND SWWD INTO SE MO WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE BUT SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F.
   THIS AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE PADUCAH WSR-88D VWP SHOWS MODERATE
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH SOME VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT FROM 0 TO 2
   KM AGL. AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A
   MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 10/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35588865 35238909 35118952 35379005 35869011 36748931
               37718803 38108739 38248701 38148640 37988616 37588608
               36928672 36328767 35588865