MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1861
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AZ...WRN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514...

   VALID 202047Z - 202200Z

   CORRECTED FOR MD AREA.

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH
   AREA WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
   AND A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS SVR TSTMS ACROSS
   THE WATCH AREA. BEST SEVERE ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER FAR SE
   AZ AND SW NM WHERE MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   AROUND 35 TO 40 KT AND MLCAPE OVER 1000 J PER KG. LEAD SHORTWAVE
   LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
   MOVING THROUGH ERN AZ...SUGGESTING NEW TSTM INITIATION WITHIN THE
   WRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WILL GRADUALLY WANE...ALTHOUGH THE
   AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE
   PERSISTENCE OF ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT
   MUCH OF THE AREA COOL WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT OR BELOW 7.5 DEG
   C PER KM. AS A RESULT...COLD POOL AMALGAMATION AND RESULTING UPSCALE
   GROWTH HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED. THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH
   THE MAIN THREAT REMAINING AS SVR HAIL...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
   REMAIN POSSIBLE. SVR THREAT CURRENTLY PERSISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
   WATCH AREA WITH THE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
   FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

   ..MOSIER.. 10/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31441051 36901063 36890683 31440697 31441051