MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1866
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NM...FAR WRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516...

   VALID 211822Z - 211845Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING
   LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...A RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS HAS BEEN OBSERVED
   OVER ERN LUNA AND WRN DONA ANA COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL NM WITH
   VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA SUGGESTING SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  VISIBLE
   SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE ADDITIONAL STORMS
   FORMING SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW OF EL PASO WHICH SHOULD
   BEGIN TO AFFECT S-CNTRL NM AND FAR WRN TX WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.

   ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS ALLOWED
   TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 60S WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH
   BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.  FURTHER
   BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL AIR MASS
   DESTABILIZATION...AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A VERTICALLY VEERING
   WIND PROFILE WITH AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT
   WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..MEAD.. 10/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   30620498 31780820 31810822 32080823 32200823 32520823
               33470800 34580772 34580769 34580752 34580691 34580690
               34580687 34340488 34080383 33650351 33590351 33560351
               32970376 30650491 30620498 30620498 30620498