MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX...FAR SE NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 212051Z - 212245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS AS BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING APPROACHING FROM THE W. OVERALL
   ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOW FOR DIURNAL HEATING AND
   RESULTING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST
   SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT TEMPERATURES IN
   THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH MLCAPE
   ESTIMATED AT AROUND 1000 J/KG PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS. VISIBLE
   SATELLITE HAS SHOWN A MODEST INCREASE IN CU BUT THE BULK OF THE
   INCREASED CLOUDINESS THUS FAR HAS BEEN W OF THE AREA WHERE THE
   BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NRN
   MEXICO EXISTS. CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
   RESULT INCREASED LIFT AND EVENTUAL TSTM INITIATION OVER FAR W TX/FAR
   SE NM. 

   WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT OR ABOVE 50 KTS AND MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER
   KG...THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. INITIAL THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
   HAIL BUT SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
   LINEAR STORM MODE LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE
   BACKED SURFACE WINDS OBSERVED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...A TORNADO OR
   TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS ANTICIPATED SVR THREAT...TRENDS
   ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 10/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29630287 29550303 29450324 29500358 29670400 29960439
               30440472 31130489 32150463 32340449 32430428 32360379
               32160348 31880314 31440272 30890249 30340238 30060245
               29870260 29630287