MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NERN MO...W-CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 112024Z - 112230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PREDOMINANT DAMAGING WIND AND A TEMPORALLY LIMITED TORNADO
   THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP E OF WW 534 TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY THIS
   EVENING. WHILE WATCH TYPE IS UNCLEAR...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS
   LIKELY BY 22Z.

   DISCUSSION...BAND OF ARCING TSTMS ALONG THE DRYLINE HAS INTENSIFIED
   IN THE PAST HALF HOUR WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND
   SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. CURRENT FORWARD SPEED IS AROUND 50 KT WHICH
   PLACES THE MO PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BAND NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF WW
   534 AROUND 2230Z. AS THE CONVECTION OCCLUDES THE NRN EXTENT OF UPPER
   50S SURFACE DEW POINTS IN CNTRL MO...OVERALL INTENSITY SHOULD PEAK
   WITHIN WW 534. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SWLYS
   SEMI-PERPENDICULAR TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE TSTM BAND...A RISK FOR
   AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PERSIST TO THE MS RIVER. AN
   APPRECIABLE TORNADO RISK SHOULD REMAIN TEMPORALLY CONFINED TO ABOUT
   AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET AS THE LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY
   FURTHER WANES...A SCENARIO WELL SUPPORTED BY CAM GUIDANCE.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 11/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   42189216 42419187 42309104 41879035 41378997 40888989
               40148991 39689000 39409025 39169088 39199133 39159174
               39329213 40359202 42189216