MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX...OK PANHANDLE...FAR SE
   CO...SW KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 161844Z - 162115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE ACROSS
   THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL
   AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   INCREASE. A TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WW ISSUANCE
   WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE MCD AREA BY THE TOP OF THE HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995 MB LOW OVER SE CO WITH
   A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS NW TX AND SW OK. SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F IN NW TX AND IN THE MID 50S F ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND SW KS. INSTABILITY HAS STEADILY INCREASED
   OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING POCKETS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN
   THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED EXPANSION IN CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE
   INSTABILITY...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ARE
   SHOWING STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE NWD
   INTO SW KS WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS ESTIMATED FROM 55 TO 70 KT. THIS
   WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY AS
   INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   CONSIDERING THE FAST NEWD MOVEMENT OF CELLS AT NEAR 50 KT...A WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL
   JET MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET
   INTENSIFIES...SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
   FOR TORNADOES.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 11/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   34540061 34150261 34980299 36240292 37800213 38490164
               38480024 37849978 37139991 34540061