MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0550 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 162350Z - 170045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME ISOLATED SVR IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE A LINE
   OF TSTMS  DEVELOPS RAPIDLY ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
   REGION LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A
   TORNADO OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE THREAT WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A
   WW.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A CLUSTER OF TSTMS
   ACROSS LEA COUNTY NM. THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY PLUS ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT -- CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM FAR
   NE NM SWWD TO W OF GDP IN FAR W TX -- MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SVR
   THREAT /INCLUDING TORNADOES/ AHEAD OF THE MAIN SVR THREAT EXPECTED
   AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY
   CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND MUCAPE
   FROM 500 TO 1000 J PER KG. KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG WITH
   MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT AND 0-1 KM
   SRH APPROACHING 300 M2/S2. 

   CURRENT EXPECTATION IS QUICK TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 03Z. AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTH
   OF THE KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL PERSIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
   FAST-MOVING LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME
   EMBEDDED MESOVORTICIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN A NON-ZERO
   TORNADO THREAT DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. A
   WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THESE POTENTIAL THREATS.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 11/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32080123 30570162 30210225 30540279 31410308 32090309
               32610293 32960276 33230239 33310170 33120135 32670114
               32080123