MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1019 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW/CNTRL TX AND WRN OK INTO CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 540...

   VALID 170419Z - 170545Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 540 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS FAR EAST AS THE
   INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY 09Z.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING BROKEN SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
   ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...NEAR OR
   JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.  INTENSITY TRENDS AS ACTIVITY
   PROGRESSES TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 06-09Z REMAIN A
   BIT UNCLEAR.  IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT FURTHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
   ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS.  AT THE VERY
   LEAST...INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION...IN
   CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET.  

   DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING
   RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
   SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE...CONTRIBUTING TO VERY LARGE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE EVOLUTION OF MESOVORTICES ACCOMPANIED BY THE
   RISK FOR TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE ALSO APPEARS
   POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT NEAR THE RED
   RIVER.

   ..KERR.. 11/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31800088 33000018 33879946 34919920 35799933 36529940
               38199857 38699808 38179710 34659741 33289745 32389823
               31500006 31800088