MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2069
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND E-CNTRL NM

   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

   VALID 262309Z - 270415Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE
   00Z-03Z TIME FRAME AND LIKELY PERSIST INTO LATE TONIGHT...WITH
   SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES/HOUR EXPECTED.
   CONCURRENTLY...STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN FREQUENT
   GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY
   DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EVOLVING CLOSED
   UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS NM/AZ...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LOCATED
   OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA PROVINCE IN MEXICO. CONCURRENTLY...A COLD
   FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY SWD ACROSS SWRN TX. THE UPPER LOW IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARDS
   FAR W TX. A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED
   FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WILL RESULT IN STRONG ASCENT DEVELOPING IN
   THE 00Z-04Z TIME FRAME.  

   SFC OBS INDICATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ERN NM HIGH PLAINS ARE
   STILL IN THE MID-30S TO LOW-40S F...BUT COOLING RAPIDLY DUE TO
   WET-BULB EFFECTS AND COLD ADVECTION VIA STRONG N-NELY SFC WINDS.
   SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
   00Z...WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN
   CONTINUES TO COOL. STRONG ASCENT WITHIN THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH
   ZONE AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
   SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR DEVELOPING BY 03Z. THIS TREND IS
   SUPPORTED BY LATEST SREF AND OPERATIONAL HRRR GUIDANCE.
   ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION RATES IS
   LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES RECENTLY NOTED.

   HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES MAY PERSIST INTO LATE TONIGHT...DUE TO THE
   SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE CLOSED LOW AND PERSISTENT AREA OF ENHANCED
   UVVS FOCUSED OVER THE ERN NM HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS AND
   ASSOCIATED GUSTS MAY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM CURRENT LEVELS...WITH
   GUSTS TO 40 TO 60 MPH BECOMING COMMON. COMBINED WITH THE HEAVY
   SNOWFALL RATES...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH
   VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED.

   ..ROGERS/BUNTING.. 12/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   35070323 33380311 32220325 32080397 32090472 32310513
               33320557 34300548 34870498 35200383 35070323