MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN KS SWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL/WRN OK AND INTO PARTS OF WRN NORTH TX

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 280841Z - 281445Z

   SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY FROM PARTS OF SERN KS SWD TO WRN N TX INCLUDING PARTS OF
   CNTRL/WRN OK DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF BY THE
   MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THE CENTER OF A DEEP/COMPACT
   CYCLONE CROSSING TX HAVING RECENTLY GAINED MORE APPRECIABLE LATITUDE
   AS IT TRACKS ACROSS TX. A CORRESPONDING DEFORMATION-ZONE
   PRECIPITATION SHIELD STRETCHES FROM THE TERMINUS OF A BIFURCATING
   WARM CONVEYOR OVER THE MO OZARKS SWWD TO WRN N TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS
   BEING FED BY AMPLE MOISTURE FROM A LOBE OF ASCENT/DCVA IMMEDIATELY
   PRECEDING THE CYCLONE CENTER APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX. THE
   DEFORMATION-ZONE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS FORECAST TO PIVOT IN A
   COUNTERCLOCKWISE FASHION IN RESPONSE TO THE N-OF-E TRACK OF THE
   PARENT MID-LEVEL CYCLONE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
   HOURS. MEANWHILE...A WAVY 32-F SFC ISOTHERM EXTENDS FROM E-CNTRL KS
   THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS TX. COLD
   ADVECTION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A GENERAL SWD/SEWD SHIFT OF THIS
   ISOTHERM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...YIELDING MIXED
   PRECIPITATION TYPES.

   THE 00Z NORMAN OK RAOB AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED
   WARM-LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND THE 3-6C RANGE SUPPORTING COMPLETE
   MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST
   ABOVE THE SFC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW PBL WHOSE MINIMUM
   TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C TO -5C MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO SUPPORT
   COMPLETE RE-FREEZING OF THESE HYDROMETEORS BEFORE THEY REACH THE 
   SFC -- RESULTING IN SLEET AS OPPOSED TO FREEZING RAIN OWING TO ICE
   NUCLEATION AT THE TOP OF THE PBL. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
   NEAR AND W OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER WARM-NOSE
   TEMPERATURES EXIST. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. SLEET-ACCUMULATION RATES ON THE ORDER OF
   AROUND 0.05-0.15 INCH PER HOUR...AND FREEZING-RAIN RATES ON THE
   ORDER OF 0.02-0.05 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
   MORNING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF BY MID/LATE MORNING AS THE
   EVOLVING EXTRATROPICAL-CYCLONE COMMA HEAD TRACKS NEWD AWAY FROM THE
   LOCAL AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY ALSO OCCUR IF PRECIPITATION
   WERE TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
   RESPONSE TO COOLING WITHIN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER.

   ..COHEN.. 12/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33829827 33839909 34429924 35719878 36999798 38049676
               38229597 37929538 37309557 36029647 34629746 33829827