MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2107
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KY / FAR SRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 282204Z - 282300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY LEND AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT FOR
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW CLOUD SHIELD IN
   WAKE OF A EXTENSIVE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINE FROM THE
   MID OH VALLEY SWD INTO MIDDLE TN.  VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATORY MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ARE IMPINGING ON
   THE REGION AND HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
   PAST 30 MINUTES FROM SWRN INDIANA INTO W-CNTRL KY.  SURFACE TEMPS IN
   THE 60S WITH 50S TO NEAR 60 BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW WEDGE OF MEAGER BUOYANCY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
   OF A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE/FRONTAL SEGMENT LOCATED OVER W-CNTRL KY. 
   INTENSE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY A EXTREMELY LARGE
   HODOGRAPH /REFERENCE KLVX VAD/ WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT STRONG
   STORM DEVELOPMENT IF UPDRAFTS CAN PERSIST/INTENSIFY.  ALTHOUGH THE
   PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...A NARROW
   SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY ENVELOPE AREAS
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER W-CNTRL KY INTO THE GREATER
   KENTUCKIANA REGION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 12/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37898684 38218643 38188607 37878603 37378629 37088686
               37898684