Mesoscale Discussion 0282
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0536 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of far east Mississippi...northern
   Alabama...far northwest Georgia...far southeast Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072236Z - 080030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Discrete storms may continue for a few more hours, posing
   mainly a severe hail risk, though a few damaging wind gusts can not
   be ruled out. A WW issuance is not anticipated at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Relatively discrete convection, occasionally exhibiting
   brief, transient supercell structures, continue to initiate/sustain
   themselves along a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone extending from
   central Mississippi, to far southeast Tennessee. Instability is
   gradually waning across the warm sector, with MLCAPE decreasing to
   1000-1500 J/kg in the last few hours. Nonetheless, relatively steep
   low-level lapse rates and 0-3km CAPE exceeding 100 J/kg have
   supported vigorous updraft development despite a weak shear
   environment being in place, with 1.5 inch diameter hail reported in
   Fayette County, AL an hour ago. 

   Before the onset of nocturnal stabilization, a few more instances of
   severe hail are possible, with a severe gust or two possible with
   the stronger water-loaded downdrafts. Given the sparse nature of the
   severe hail/wind threat, no WW issuances are expected at this time.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 04/07/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33238920 34308789 35248582 35528431 35178409 33708536
               33108669 32918808 33238920