Mesoscale Discussion 0347
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

   Areas affected...Areas near/east of the Blue Ridge of North Carolina
   into Virginia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...

   Valid 142050Z - 142215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for supercells potentially capable of producing
   tornadoes continues, and could increase at least a bit further
   through 6-7 PM EDT.  Trends will also continue to be monitored for
   northward development toward the northern Virginia vicinity, which
   may require an additional severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...A zone of enhanced near/surface warm advection and
   convergence to the lee of the Blue Ridge mountains may remain a
   focus for discrete thunderstorm development across North Carolina
   into Virginia through the 22-23Z time frame.  Aided by peak boundary
   layer instability associated with daytime heating (including CAPE up
   to 1000 J/kg), a few supercells are possible, in the presence of
   strong low-level and deep layer vertical shear.  The Rapid refresh
   suggests that southwesterly 850 mb flow may continue to strengthen
   in excess of 50 kt, contributing to further enlargement of low-level
   hodographs and perhaps increasing tornadic potential.

   ..Kerr.. 04/14/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36248135 36838019 39017734 37257808 35518037 35508160
               36248135