Mesoscale Discussion 0402
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

   Areas affected...Coastal Carolinas to southeast VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 191629Z - 191830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually increase through the
   afternoon hours. Some tornado potential exists with damaging winds
   becoming more likely later with a squall line.

   DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal low-level warm advection has been primarily
   responsible for ongoing band of convection across the eastern
   Carolinas into southeast VA. Within this band, several long-lived
   updrafts have exhibited rotation which is to be expected given the
   observed environmental shear. There is some concern for isolated
   supercells and tornadoes within this regime. However, a more
   concentrated squall line should surge into this region ahead of the
   short wave later this afternoon. Damaging winds are expected with
   this convection.

   ..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/19/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

   LAT...LON   33987997 38097732 36627620 33247811 33987997