Mesoscale Discussion 0698
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1041 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

   Areas affected...portions of northwest TX...TX Panhandle...and
   western OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 201541Z - 201815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed by 1pm CDT.  Storm
   initiation is expected as early as 1-2pm along the dryline.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows the initial stages of a
   bubbling cumulus field across the Texas South Plains from near
   Midland northward to Lubbock.  Late morning surface observations
   show south-southeasterlies with rapid moisture advection occurring
   with dewpoints rising to near 70 degrees F near the Low Rolling
   Plains.  Despite the scattered low cloud cover, additional heating
   and moistening will contribute to extreme buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg
   MLCAPE) developing by early-mid afternoon east of a sharping dryline
   in parts of northwest and west TX.  The aforementioned theta-e
   increase and weak large-scale forcing will likely lead to storms
   explosively developing during the 1pm-3pm period.  

   Strong and veering low-level winds beneath very strong deep-layer
   wind fields will likely result in sickle-shaped hodographs over the
   TX Panhandle and western OK this afternoon.  0-1km SRH around 250
   m2/s2 coupled with the extreme buoyancy will favor long-track and
   potentially violent tornadoes with the strongest storms.  Giant hail
   (3-4+ inches in diameter) will be possible.

   Farther south, tornadoes and very large hail are possible with any
   supercells that develop near the Permian Basin.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 05/20/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32130203 32900240 35010253 36220098 36199971 35699906
               35089909 32510052 32060109 32130203