Mesoscale Discussion 1124
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0448 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

   Areas affected...TX Panhandle and TX Caprock vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 182148Z - 182245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to move east into an area of richer
   low-level moisture over the TX South Plains and intensify.  Large
   hail and severe gusts are the primary risks.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows isolated, high-based thunderstorms
   over the Eastern Plains of NM.  Surface observations show
   temperatures in the lower 90s degrees F over eastern NM with surface
   dewpoints mixing into the 40s.  Farther east, dewpoints range from
   the lower 50s near the NM/TX border into the lower 60s near the I-27
   corridor.  As a result, MLCAPE increases from west to east across
   northwest TX.  

   Westerly flow aloft strengthens from 30kt around 400mb to 75kt at
   200mb.  The presence of steep low- to mid-level lapse rates (in
   excess of 8 degrees C/km) underlying high-level shear in the -10 to
   -30 degrees C layer, suggest large to very large hail is possible
   with the strongest updrafts.  Upscale growth into storm clusters and
   perhaps a linear band will serve as a transition for severe gusts to
   become the primary risk late this evening.

   ..Smith/Edwards.. 06/18/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35560183 35540054 35220007 34149996 33180028 32980100
               33040213 33490269 34600286 35270254 35560183