Mesoscale Discussion 1126
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0712 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

   Areas affected...extreme southeast CO...southwest KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...

   Valid 190012Z - 190115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An organized line segment over southeast CO will likely
   move into southwest KS during the evening.  It is unclear whether a
   small severe thunderstorm watch is needed over southwest KS to the
   east of severe thunderstorm watch 396.  Severe gusts are the primary
   hazard this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a line segment over extreme
   southeast CO approaching the KS/CO border in the next 1-2 hours. 
   Radar imagery and surface analysis indicate a southwestward-moving
   outflow boundary over southwest KS.  This boundary is shallow
   according to the 00z Dodge City raob.  Although westerly flow is
   modest (25-30kt) through much of the troposphere, around 1000 J/kg
   MLCAPE was present at Dodge City and greater buoyancy is likely near
   the CO/KS/OK border where surface temperatures are warmer ahead of
   the outflow.  Given the overall scenario of moderate deep-layer
   shear/instability, there may be a couple of downdrafts capable of
   severe gusts this evening but coverage of these gusts is less
   certain.

   ..Smith.. 06/19/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37890298 38000196 37650012 37159997 36840024 37060262
               37280307 37890298