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Mesoscale Discussion 1336 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2019
Areas affected...portions of central/northeast Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012342Z - 020215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are developing along a surface front across
portions of western/central Nebraska with coverage expected to
increase along/near this boundary in the next couple of hours.
Severe wind/hail are possible, but a watch issuance is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Storms are developing along a surface front stretching
from a low in northeast Nebraska southwestward into northwest
Kansas/eastern Colorado. With surface temperatures in the 80s to low
90s F and dewpoints in the 60s F, MLCAPE has increase to 2000-2500
J/kg across the area. The stronger mid-level flow remains displaced
to the northwest/north, which will limit the shear and thus
supercell potential of these storms. Overall, mostly multicellular
convection is expected with isolated damaging winds as the main
threat with isolated large hail also possible. Storm coverage will
increase in the next couple of hours before sunset, then trend
downward. Given the marginal severe threat and limited time for this
threat, a watch issuance is unlikely.
..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40829903 40810012 40980050 41220069 41530064 42059995
42649923 42949853 42899774 42749701 42509661 42299658
41649713 41209796 40849893 40829903
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