Mesoscale Discussion 1999
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0754 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

   Areas affected...Southwest/Central IA...Northwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 220054Z - 220300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are expected to spread/develop across
   southwest into central IA. A few storms may produce large hail and
   locally severe wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased markedly along a corridor
   from north of DDC into southeast NE over the last few hours. This
   pre-frontal activity should continue to expand/develop into IA over
   the next 1-3 hours as deep, moist southwesterly steering current
   encourages northeast movement. Plains convection initially developed
   within a steep-lapse rate environment, however buoyancy is
   considerably weaker over IA where surface temperatures are only in
   the low-mid 70s. Latest thinking is robust updrafts will spread east
   of ww657 but likely weaken a bit downstream with more marginal hail
   and only isolated strong/severe wind gusts possible.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 09/22/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41469613 42559346 41529256 40239506 40459638 41469613