Mesoscale Discussion 2120
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0929 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019

   Areas affected...southwest Alabama into the western Florida
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261429Z - 261600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for isolated damaging wind and a brief tornado or
   two will persist into the early afternoon from southwest AL into the
   western FL Panhandle. At this time, the threat does not appear
   sufficient for a WW, but trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...As of mid morning a broken line of low-topped
   convection with very little to no lightning extends from southwest
   AL into the northern Gulf moving east at 30 kt. This activity
   resides within a corridor of marginal instability with MLCAPE near
   or below 800 J/kg inland. Compact shortwave trough located over
   central MS is moving rapidly northeast and will result in the
   low-level jet gradually shifting northward away from the more
   unstable portion of the warm sector later this afternoon. In the
   meantime Mobile AL VWP still shows a large hodograph associated with
   a 50 kt low-level jet, supporting 300+ 0-1 km storm relative
   helicity just ahead of the convective line. Updraft rotation
   continues to be observed with some of the cells embedded within the
   line, and this environment will support at least a marginal risk for
   damaging wind with bowing segments as well as a tornado or two with
   low-topped supercells. The greatest tornado threat appears to be
   with convection moving onshore where the boundary layer is more
   moist and unstable. Marginal instability should remain the primary
   limiting factor, especially with northward extent inland.

   ..Dial/Grams.. 10/26/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   29958766 31028789 31908801 32218704 30848660 29948700
               29958766