Mesoscale Discussion 1524
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

   Areas affected...North Carolina...Virginia...and east Maryland

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141710Z - 141915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually develop through
   the mid/late afternoon hours and may pose a damaging wind risk.
   Trends will be monitored, and a watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows generally clear skies over
   VA/NC with a few cumulus fields developing along the Blue Ridge
   Mountains from the Carolinas into western VA as well as across
   central NC along a weakly confluent trough axis. The development of
   these cumulus fields are indicative of boundary-layer
   destabilization thanks to a combination of rich boundary-layer
   moisture, minimal capping (as observed in regional 12z soundings),
   and near-surface parcels approaching their convective temperatures
   (generally in the upper 80s and low 90s) via strong insolation. RAP
   analyses support this idea, showing diminishing MLCIN amid
   increasing MLCAPE (up to 1500-2500 J/kg). Convective initiation is
   already underway south of this region into SC/GA along the trough
   axis where capping is weaker and confluence stronger. Similar storm
   development is expected from NC northward into VA through the mid
   afternoon hours along the trough axis and approaching weak cold
   front as inhibition continues to erode. Deep-layer shear is fairly
   weak, which will limit the overall potential for organized severe
   storms. However, steepening low-level lapse rates may allow for
   sporadic, but damaging, downburst winds with any cell or storm
   clusters. Trends will be monitored, and a watch may be needed for
   portions of central/eastern VA.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 08/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36258136 37128030 38157874 38937737 39007635 38687580
               38287573 37627596 37067649 36597714 36047766 35577834
               35217925 35268008 35488109 36258136