Mesoscale Discussion 1597
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0600 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

   Areas affected...Central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242300Z - 250100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A conditional severe risk exists across central Nebraska
   this evening, but will be highly dependent on sustaining a mature
   thunderstorm within a capped environment. Trends will be monitored,
   but a watch is not likely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible and IR imagery from central NE
   shows a few convective towers and weak thunderstorms trying to
   deepen along a cold front and within a diffuse warm frontal zone.
   Despite the combined ascent from a weak upper-level impulse (noted
   in water-vapor imagery over the state) and the frontal boundaries,
   lingering inhibition is preventing storm maturation for the most
   part. This has been exemplified by recent cells north of North
   Platte, NE, one of which has only recently begun to mature thanks to
   stronger forcing for ascent along a boundary collision within an
   environment featuring favorable instability (up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE)
   and deep-layer shear values near 40 knots. The general expectation
   is that the probability for additional convection will diminish
   after 00z as diurnal cooling/stabilization takes place. However, 
   ongoing convection may intensify, or one or two new storms may
   develop, within this region over the next hour. If this occurs,
   storms may take on supercellular characteristics and pose a
   wind/hail threat. Given the conditional and isolated nature of the
   threat, a watch is not expected.

   ..Moore/Bunting.. 08/24/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41810135 42409998 42699883 42769761 42039693 41219700
               40959791 40999914 41140031 41350111 41430137 41810135