Mesoscale Discussion 1725
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021

   Areas affected...South-central and southeastern Oregon

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101934Z - 102130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms are expected to develop in the higher terrain
   of northern California into central Oregon. Cold temperatures aloft
   will support isolated large hail. A damaging wind gust is also
   possible with the most intense storms. A watch is not likely this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus are continuing to deepen within the
   Klamath Mountains underneath the upper trough. Though surface
   temperatures are relatively cool in the wake of this morning's
   stratiform precipitation, mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km are
   supporting around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Continued surface heating in
   south-central Oregon may support some increase in buoyancy this
   afternoon. Greater deep-layer shear lies to the southeast of these
   storms within the mid-level jet. However, 25-35 kts of shear may
   promote a marginal supercell or two. Isolated hail will likely be
   the main threat. Lack of steeper low-level lapse rates should keep
   the wind gusts threat lower. Due to remaining cloud cover to the
   north and east, the spatial extent of the severe threat will be
   limited to where sufficient destabilization can occur. A watch is
   not likely this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 09/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...REV...MFR...

   LAT...LON   41862106 41852186 42232191 43322141 43922093 44002085
               44222041 43911942 43241881 42631858 42101874 41991972
               41862106