Mesoscale Discussion 0059
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

   Areas affected...Southern Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 20...

   Valid 122006Z - 122200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 20 continues.

   SUMMARY...Upscale growth into an organized squall line is expected
   to continue over the next 1-2 hours across southern Alabama and the
   far western Florida Panhandle. However, a tornado threat will
   persist with supercells ahead of the line.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar trends from KMOB and GOES IR imagery show
   convection gradually intensifying along a cold front across far
   southeast MS into southwest AL. This trend is expected to continue
   to over the next 1-2 hours as the cold front pushes east into
   southern AL. Consequently, the potential for damaging winds may
   increase given 30-40 knot shear vectors in the 0-2 to 0-3 km layers
   orthogonal to the line. An embedded tornado threat may accompany the
   line if a segment of balanced outflow can become established and
   oriented meridionally. 

   The relatively higher tornado threat will remain associated with
   isolated convection/supercells ahead of the line. A notable
   supercell, currently over Conecuh county, AL, has maintained an
   organized mesocyclone over the past hour and will continue to
   propagate to the east/northeast over an environment with favorable
   low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s) and 0-1 km SRH near
   200 m2/s2. Furthermore, supercell propagation vectors suggest this
   cell will remain ahead of the line for roughly the next 1-2 hours
   with relatively few storm interactions, which will aid in
   maintaining the tornado potential.

   ..Moore.. 01/12/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30578856 31658785 31948707 31908587 31028608 30398651
               30228737 30098838 30578856