Mesoscale Discussion 0994
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

   Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle into western OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121652Z - 121845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail may continue through
   the early afternoon. Trends will be closely monitored, but watch
   issuance will probably not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of elevated convection earlier this
   morning, additional thunderstorms have recently developed across
   parts of the TX Panhandle. This activity is likely being aided by
   modest low-level warm advection centered near/above 750 mb. These
   thunderstorms will remain elevated, well to the north of a surface
   front draped across central TX. Still, around 500-1000 J/kg of
   MUCAPE should be present across this region with modestly steepened
   mid-level lapse rates persisting. Enhanced mid/upper-level flow
   associated with a southern-stream jet is fostering 45-50+ kt of
   cloud-bearing shear. This should support continued updraft
   organization, with an elevated supercell or two possible. Isolated
   severe hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter appears possible in the
   short term, but this activity will probably tend to move into
   western OK, where substantial convective overturning has occurred
   earlier this morning. At this point, watch issuance appears
   unlikely, as the overall severe threat should remain rather
   isolated.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/12/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35450227 35880222 36100142 36039976 35389904 35059934
               34990012 35160167 35240218 35450227