Mesoscale Discussion 1461
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1024 AM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

   Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma into the Arklatex and central
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081524Z - 081700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Current storms across southeast Oklahoma and western
   Arkansas could intensify which could necessitate a severe
   thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have continued in the vicinity
   of a remnant MCV across eastern Oklahoma in the wake of the
   overnight MCS. Within the last hour, a longer duration thunderstorm
   within this MCV has developed into a bowing segment across Scott
   County, Arkansas with additional storms developing to the southwest.
   SPC mesoanalysis indicates CINH has eroded downstream of this
   activity with temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid
   70s. Therefore, expect ongoing activity to persist through the
   afternoon. 

   Overall, wind shear in the region is quite weak (20 to 25 knots per
   RAP forecast soundings), but some increased mid-level westerly flow
   in the vicinity of the MCV (35 to 50 knots per SRX and LZK VWP) may
   aid in storm organization. If convective coverage/intensity
   continues to increase over the next 1 to 2 hours, a severe
   thunderstorm watch may be needed.

   ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/08/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33989543 34579479 35079398 34869212 33909155 33069208
               32709295 32529367 32689454 32899514 33629552 33989543