Mesoscale Discussion 1463
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0138 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

   Areas affected...parts of northeast TX...northwest LA...south
   AR...north MS...and southwest TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081838Z - 082045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible across parts of far
   northeast Texas, far northwest Louisiana, southern Arkansas, western
   Tennessee, and northern Mississippi. Trends are being monitored for
   a watch in the next couple hours.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing near a remnant MCV and boundary
   across central Arkansas and northern Mississippi. Ahead and south of
   the convection, temperatures are in the low 90s F and dewpoints are
   in the mid 70s, yielding a moist and strongly unstable troposphere.
   However, short-term RAP forecast profiles in the region show weak
   low-level and deep-layer shear, meaning multicell clusters with
   water-loaded downdrafts should dominate in the area. Therefore, wind
   damage should be the primary threat with these storms, and a
   preferred area of clustering and wind damage may occur along the
   boundary near I-40. With time storms should cluster and move off to
   the east and southeast.

   ..Supinie/Mosier.. 07/08/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33959445 34579285 35239202 35379154 35449028 35288889
               35038833 34748818 34138828 33818850 33609033 33379147
               32949297 32729409 32989459 33159487 33689481 33899471
               33959445