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Mesoscale Discussion 1847
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1847
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

   Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle into the Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 052015Z - 052145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the
   Texas Panhandle. Severe hail and wind are the main threats. A WW
   issuance is possible if confidence increases in storm longevity.

   DISCUSSION...Clear skies/strong surface heating have allowed
   convective temperatures (i.e. around 100 F) to be reached, resulting
   in robust initiation across western parts of the TX Panhandle. MRMS
   mosaic radar imagery shows these storms have 50 dBZ cores
   approaching 40 kft, with MESH already approaching 2 inches with the
   strongest storms. Latest mesoanalysis and AMA VAD profiles show
   hodographs with modest curvature and considerable elongation, which
   are contributing to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Regional radar
   shows splitting supercell structures, and these storms will be
   capable of producing severe wind and hail should they become
   sustained. As such, a WW issuance my be needed pending convective

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 08/05/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34140301 34920295 35960220 36560137 36800049 36470007
               35550006 34920031 34550085 34120172 34140301 

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