Mesoscale Discussion 0576
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

   Areas affected...parts of eastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 301935Z - 302130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development is probable through
   4-7 PM CDT, including a few supercells with potential to produce
   large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and a risk for tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...To the south of a strong, broadly cyclonic mid/upper
   jet nosing east of the Front Range, toward the the middle Missouri
   Valley, warm elevated mixed-layer air remains inhibitive to
   convective development in the presence of weak to negligible
   mid/upper forcing for ascent.  However, where the cold front is
   overtaking a sharpening dryline across the Salina vicinity of north
   central Kansas, more notable deepening of convective development is
   ongoing.  

   Aided by a corridor of stronger pre-frontal boundary-layer heating,
   including surface temperatures exceeding 90F along an axis across
   northwestern Oklahoma into the Salina vicinity, mixed-layer CAPE now
   appears in excess of 2000 J/kg along the sharpening dryline.  With
   additional insolation, it appears that low-level forcing near the
   cold front/dryline intersection may become sufficient to support
   sustained thunderstorm development as early as 21-22Z.  In the
   presence of moderate but veering flow with height in the 850-500 mb
   layer, vertical shear will be conducive to supercell development, at
    least initially, and perhaps an upscale growing line with
   persistent supercell development along its southern flank, gradually
   approaching the Wichita area through early evening.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38499761 39979640 39699511 37819607 36929748 37309836
               38499761