Mesoscale Discussion 0592
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0713 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of northwest Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...

   Valid 290013Z - 290145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182 continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercells will continue to pose a risk of very large
   hail, with an increasing tornado risk into this evening (00-02Z).

   DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete supercell clusters are tracking
   northeastward across northwest Texas this evening. These storms are
   evolving east of a dryline bulge, where temperatures have warmed
   into the 80s amid upper 60s to around 70 dewpoints -- beneath steep
   midlevel lapse rates. Around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per VWP
   data), characterized by a long/generally straight hodograph, should
   continue to favor a risk of very large hail. However, as the
   low-level jet increases over the next couple hours, clockwise-curved
   low-level hodographs should expand, favoring an increasing tornado
   risk -- especially as storms track northeastward toward the Red
   River through 02Z. Around of 300-400 m2/s2 effective SRH will
   conditionally support a strong tornado with any established
   right-moving supercells that evolve.

   ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   32470016 32680034 33790018 34189991 34299959 34229923
               34049892 33689885 33009895 32579931 32429964 32470016 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN