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Mesoscale Discussion 56
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0056
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1102 AM CST Sun Jan 09 2022

   Areas affected...east-central MS...far western AL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 14...

   Valid 091702Z - 091900Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 14 continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms have begun to organize during the past hour over
   central MS.  The magnitude of low-level moisture, and whether or not
   the richer moisture reaches the I-20 corridor, will likely prove
   critical for the tornado risk over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KDGX (Jackson, MS) shows a
   south-southwest to north-northeast band of intensifying
   thunderstorms (echo tops increasing to 35-40 kft) as storms begin to
   organize.  The primary uncertainty for tornado development during
   the next 1-2 hours is the richness of low-level moisture immediately
   ahead of the thunderstorms.  Surface observations show temperatures
   in the upper 60s at Hattiesburg/Laurel, MS with upper 60s dewpoints.
   Farther northeast, only a 60 deg F dewpoint was recorded at
   Meridian, MS as of 10am CST.  A maritime warm front is advancing
   northward between the two cities and it is uncertain whether the
   richer moisture will advect northward in time to be available within
   the inflow of the developing storms.  If this richer moisture does
   manage to reach near the I-20 corridor, it would seem the greater
   buoyancy available would support an increased risk for a tornado, in
   addition to isolated damaging gusts.

   ..Smith.. 01/09/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32568914 32638827 32338805 32008828 31848974 32188963
               32568914 

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