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Mesoscale Discussion 119
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MD 119 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0119
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0928 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of south-central MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110328Z - 110530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind and/or a brief tornado cannot be
   ruled out as a convective line moves eastward late this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Modest intensification of a convective cluster and
   embedded line segment has been noted over the last hour, to the west
   of Jackson, MS. Despite warm late evening conditions and dewpoints
   in the low 60s F, weak lapse rates are limiting instability across
   the region, with MLCAPE likely less than 300 J/kg along/downstream
   of the line. However, recent lightning activity suggests that
   convection has deepened somewhat across southwest MS. With strong
   low-level shear/SRH (0-1 km SRH greater than 300 m2/s2) noted on the
   KDGX VWP, organized convective elements may develop and persist
   within this cluster as it moves eastward through late evening, with
   a threat for locally damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 02/11/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32699027 33058931 32908883 32288896 31938927 31828975
               31859028 31879076 32079071 32699027 

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