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Mesoscale Discussion 0310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
Areas affected...Parts of southern into central Mississippi
Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...
Valid 221719Z - 221915Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues.
SUMMARY...One or two sustained, long track supercells with the
potential to produce strong tornadoes may gradually begin to emerge
across south central through east central Mississippi through
18-21Z, in advance of a squall line progressing east of the lower
DISCUSSION...Strongest boundary-layer destabilization the past few
hours has been focused along a corridor of stronger low-level warm
advection, preceding the increasingly extensive cluster of
thunderstorms slowly spreading into/across the lower Mississippi
Valley. This is contributing to deepening convective development
across much of southern through central Mississippi, which likely
will continue through the 18-21Z time frame. Though the number of
cells will probably decrease, stronger more widely scattered
discrete storms probably will begin to emerge in an environment with
CAPE increasing to 1500+ J/kg. The continued inland and northward
propagation of a strong southerly 850 mb speed maximum has and will
continue to contribute to very large, clockwise curved low-level
hodographs conducive to the evolution of sustained, strong
mesocyclones with the potential to produce significant tornadoes.
Given the strength of the south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow,
these will be fast moving (in excess of 50 kt) with the potential
for one or two to become fairly long track.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33558907 33238830 32318824 30878919 30478995 30519092
31249084 32518994 33558907
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