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Mesoscale Discussion 310
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0310
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1219 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of southern into central Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...

   Valid 221719Z - 221915Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues.

   SUMMARY...One or two sustained, long track supercells with the
   potential to produce strong tornadoes may gradually begin to emerge
   across south central through east central Mississippi through
   18-21Z, in advance of a squall line progressing east of the lower
   Mississippi Valley.

   DISCUSSION...Strongest boundary-layer destabilization the past few
   hours has been focused along a corridor of stronger low-level warm
   advection, preceding the increasingly extensive cluster of
   thunderstorms slowly spreading into/across the lower Mississippi
   Valley.  This is contributing to deepening convective development
   across much of southern through central Mississippi, which likely
   will continue through the 18-21Z time frame.  Though the number of
   cells will probably decrease, stronger more widely scattered
   discrete storms probably will begin to emerge in an environment with
   CAPE increasing to 1500+ J/kg.  The continued inland and northward
   propagation of a strong southerly 850 mb speed maximum has and will
   continue to contribute to very large, clockwise curved low-level
   hodographs conducive to the evolution of sustained, strong
   mesocyclones with the potential to produce significant tornadoes. 
   Given the strength of the south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow,
   these will be fast moving (in excess of 50 kt) with the potential
   for one or two to become fairly long track.

   ..Kerr.. 03/22/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   33558907 33238830 32318824 30878919 30478995 30519092
               31249084 32518994 33558907 

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