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Mesoscale Discussion 344
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0344
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

   Areas affected...Northern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 141946Z - 142045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A warm front has lifted into northern Ohio and northern
   Pennsylvania and the boundary layer has begun to destabilize within
   the discussion area. Storms to the south and west are expected to
   move into the region beginning in an hour or two. Strong wind fields
   and deep-layer shear will support organized convection capable of
   all severe hazards. The overall hail and tornado threat will be
   conditional on storm mode. A tornado watch will be likely within the
   next hour.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a warm front from
   west-central Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania lifting northward with
   time. As the front has lifted, boundary layer heating and moistening
   has occurred. Temperatures have risen to the low to mid 60s with
   dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. With a couple hours left of
   heating, MLCAPE values are forecast to reach between 500-1000 J/kg.
   While instability may end up being less than areas to the southwest,
   cloud cover for much of the day should keep boundary layer moisture
   from mixing out as much as to the southwest. Ongoing storms from
   eastern Kentucky to western/central Ohio are expected to progress
   north and east. They will move into an environment with around 50
   kts of effective deep-layer shear that will improve to around 70 kts
   as the mid-level wave continues to approach. Given the expected
   storm organization and increasing low-level shear this evening, all
   severe hazards will be possible. The main uncertainty in this
   scenario will be the storm mode as many CAMs show ongoing storms
   congealing into a linear MCS with time. Should that occur, the hail
   and tornado threat will be tempered somewhat. A tornado watch is
   likely in the next hour or so.

   ..Wendt/Grams.. 04/14/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41107931 40857924 39847979 39978128 40298207 40418235
               40688319 41028333 41328318 41638271 41898214 42078094
               42058038 41787981 41107931 

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