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Mesoscale Discussion 350
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0350
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1024 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of northeastern LA...northern/central
   MS...and far southeastern AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 121524Z - 121700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will markedly increase by this
   afternoon, with strong tornadoes, numerous damaging winds, and large
   hail all likely. A tornado watch will be required across
   northern/central MS and northeastern LA shortly.

   DISCUSSION...The airmass across northeastern LA into central MS
   downstream of a QLCS in northern LA is rapidly destabilizing. A warm
   advection wing of elevated convection has developed across this area
   as a marine warm front continues to lift northward. Surface
   dewpoints are expected to quickly increase into the upper 60s to
   lower 70s along/south of the northward-advancing warm front as a
   strong low-level mass response occurs over the ArkLaTex region this
   afternoon. With continued diurnal heating, MLCAPE should increase
   into the 1500-3000 J/kg range by peak afternoon heating. Very strong
   shear is forecast to be present from low through mid levels, which
   will support robust storm organization both with the ongoing QLCS
   and with any cells that can form farther south/east across the open
   warm sector. Latest VWP from KDGX (Jackson, MS) shows substantial
   low-level hodograph curvature, with 0-1 km shear approaching 50 kt,
   and 0-1 SRH around 500 m2/s2. Strong tornadoes may occur given the
   strength of the low-level flow, along with numerous damaging winds
   if the storm mode remains mostly linear. There is still some
   uncertainty regarding supercell potential across northern/central MS
   this afternoon. If any storms can form farther south/east of the
   ongoing QLCS, they will encounter a strongly unstable and sheared
   environment favorable for all severe hazards.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   32749188 33239208 33979052 34308935 34308820 31988853
               31519001 31379187 32089183 32749188 

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Page last modified: April 12, 2020
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