Mesoscale Discussion 0428
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern Virginia...Southern Maryland

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...

   Valid 120415Z - 120615Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated wind damage and tornado threat will likely
   continue for a few more hours across eastern Virginia. The threat
   may eventually affect southern Maryland, but the need for another
   watch is unclear.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough and an associated 80 to 100 knot
   mid-level jet, will move through Carolinas early tonight. Ahead of
   the trough, a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet will continue from eastern
   North Carolina into eastern Virginia and southern Maryland. A line
   of strong to severe thunderstorms, ongoing to the northwest of
   Wakefield, Virginia, will move eastward toward the low-level jet
   over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings across eastern
   Virginia from 05Z to 06Z have 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 0-3 km
   storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This
   environment will support an isolated tornado and wind-damage threat
   with low-topped supercells, however recent trends suggest that the
   cloud tops have warmed, and lightning flash rates have come down.
   Although the severe threat should spread northeastward into southern
   Maryland early tonight, the threat should be marginal.

   ..Broyles.. 04/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38477588 38867634 38967685 38937731 38527775 37867777
               37267765 37037736 36977682 37237608 37697583 38477588