Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 538
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 538 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0538
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0520 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...southeastern
   AL...and southern/western GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 042220Z - 042345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe/damaging wind threat is expected to continue into
   the evening with a line of storms moving eastward. Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...An organized QLCS will move eastward across parts of
   southern/central AL through the remainder of the afternoon and into
   the early evening. A moist and unstable airmass exists downstream of
   this convection, and to the south of an outflow boundary where
   additional, non-severe storms have formed. As large-scale ascent and
   35-40 kt of mid-level flow associated with an upper trough now over
   the lower MS Valley continues to overspread AL/GA and the FL
   Panhandle, the QLCS should maintain its intensity through much of
   the evening. Given the linear nature of this ongoing convection and
   steep low-level lapse rates owing to diurnal heating, scattered
   damaging downdraft winds should be the main threat. The low-level
   flow is not overly strong, and appears mostly veered to
   southwesterly per recent surface observations and area VWPs.
   Accordingly, any tornado threat should remain rather brief/isolated.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely be needed to address
   the damaging wind threat.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/04/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30378670 31338653 32988548 32888485 32968399 33078352
               31898328 31148356 30578404 30048475 29828535 30078572
               30298620 30378670 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 04, 2021
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities