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Mesoscale Discussion 0538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021
Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...southeastern
AL...and southern/western GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 042220Z - 042345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A severe/damaging wind threat is expected to continue into
the evening with a line of storms moving eastward. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...An organized QLCS will move eastward across parts of
southern/central AL through the remainder of the afternoon and into
the early evening. A moist and unstable airmass exists downstream of
this convection, and to the south of an outflow boundary where
additional, non-severe storms have formed. As large-scale ascent and
35-40 kt of mid-level flow associated with an upper trough now over
the lower MS Valley continues to overspread AL/GA and the FL
Panhandle, the QLCS should maintain its intensity through much of
the evening. Given the linear nature of this ongoing convection and
steep low-level lapse rates owing to diurnal heating, scattered
damaging downdraft winds should be the main threat. The low-level
flow is not overly strong, and appears mostly veered to
southwesterly per recent surface observations and area VWPs.
Accordingly, any tornado threat should remain rather brief/isolated.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely be needed to address
the damaging wind threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 30378670 31338653 32988548 32888485 32968399 33078352
31898328 31148356 30578404 30048475 29828535 30078572
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