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Mesoscale Discussion 538
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0538
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0520 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...southeastern
   AL...and southern/western GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 042220Z - 042345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe/damaging wind threat is expected to continue into
   the evening with a line of storms moving eastward. Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...An organized QLCS will move eastward across parts of
   southern/central AL through the remainder of the afternoon and into
   the early evening. A moist and unstable airmass exists downstream of
   this convection, and to the south of an outflow boundary where
   additional, non-severe storms have formed. As large-scale ascent and
   35-40 kt of mid-level flow associated with an upper trough now over
   the lower MS Valley continues to overspread AL/GA and the FL
   Panhandle, the QLCS should maintain its intensity through much of
   the evening. Given the linear nature of this ongoing convection and
   steep low-level lapse rates owing to diurnal heating, scattered
   damaging downdraft winds should be the main threat. The low-level
   flow is not overly strong, and appears mostly veered to
   southwesterly per recent surface observations and area VWPs.
   Accordingly, any tornado threat should remain rather brief/isolated.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely be needed to address
   the damaging wind threat.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/04/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30378670 31338653 32988548 32888485 32968399 33078352
               31898328 31148356 30578404 30048475 29828535 30078572
               30298620 30378670 

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