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Mesoscale Discussion 543
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0543
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1203 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

   Areas affected...Far Southeast PA...Far Southern NJ...Delmarva
   Peninsula...DC...Central/Eastern MD...Eastern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051703Z - 051930Z

   CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT TEMPERATURE REFERENCE IN FIRST PARAGRAPH.

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon
   as thunderstorms developing along a southeastward-moving cold front.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over east-central
   PA, with a cold front extending southwestward across central MD and
   through central and southwest VA. Air mass ahead of this front
   continues to gradually destabilize as temperatures rise into the
   upper 70s and low 80s across MD and VA. Slightly cooler temperatures
   are in place across southeast PA where cloudiness has limited
   heating. This diurnal heating is occurring amid mid 60s dewpoints,
   resulting in moderate instability despite the modest mid-level lapse
   rates. 

   General expectation is for isolated to widely scattered
   thunderstorms to develop along the front as it continues
   southeastward this afternoon. Low-level flow is relatively modest
   but deep-layer flow remains strong, contributing to fast storm
   motion and the potential for a few strong, convectively augmented
   downdrafts.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/05/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   39537710 40097629 39727508 38587495 37377570 36817633
               36817788 37887865 39537710 

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Page last modified: May 05, 2021
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