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Mesoscale Discussion 610
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0610
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

   Areas affected...Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 030418Z - 030615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging gusts will remain
   possible over central Texas for the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell currently in Lampasas County
   still has a robust updraft, although a weakening trend may be
   beginning, evidenced by both lowering echo tops and the
   outflow-dominant velocity signature. Given this trend, damaging
   gusts are likely the greatest threat with this storms, although some
   isolated hail is still possible. 

   A multicellular cluster has also recently developed across Hamilton
   and Bosque Counties, where anvil precipitation likely helped foster
   mid-level initiation in an environment characterized by low-level
   stability. Updrafts within this cluster are strong and do have some
   mid-level rotation, suggesting there is some potential for large
   hail. There is less buoyancy and increasing convective inhibition
   within the downstream air mass, so the general expectation is for
   these storms to gradually weaken as the move eastward over the next
   hour or two.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31819958 32079707 31629634 30829686 30889940 31819958 

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